000 AXNT20 KNHC 191758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N22W 13N25W 8N27W... MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS AROUND THE WAVE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BROKEN UP BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N16W 10N23W 7N30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS ALONG 23N84W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 19N86W...TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CARIBBEAN SEA 17N85W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS ALONG 21N67W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BROKEN UP BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 19N22W 13N25W 8N27W TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N30W 7N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N39W TO 8N47W AND 10N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE COASTAL SECTIONS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST/SW LOUISIANA TO 20N102W IN MEXICO. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 29N91W 26N95W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N96W...TO 20N95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN 91W AND 97W FROM THE MEXICO COAST TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N85W CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND WHERE THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 92W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE TEXAS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA FROM NEW ORLEANS TO SLIDELL...AND EASTWARD TO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE IN MOBILE ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN PENSACOLA TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION AT WHITING FIELD IN MILTON FLORIDA...AND SIMILAR SKIES HAVE BEEN FOUND FROM MARY ESTHER TO DESTIN DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. CLEARING SKIES ARE IN PANAMA CITY AFTER EARLIER MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS...AND IN APALACHICOLA AFTER EARLIER MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN. PERRY FLORIDA IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND NEARBY RAINSHOWERS. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS IN NAPLES AND A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGUL AND KEMK. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND/OR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS... KVAF AND KHQI. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS ALONG 23N84W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 19N86W...TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N85W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS ALONG 21N67W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N62W 11N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES AS OF 19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE... MIATPTPAN...ARE MERIDA 0.51...GUADELOUPE 0.39...ST. THOMAS 0.34...AND TRINIDAD 0.19. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND 90W/91W...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW... ALONG A 16N EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HISPANIOLA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS ALONG 21N67W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN HAITI WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...ALONG A 16N EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE 700 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE ISLAND FOR THE SECOND 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD TO A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR THE ENTIRE TIME. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N48W...TO THE CENTER...TO 24N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W. THIS WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE AZORES. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N42W...TO A SECOND 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N62W...TO A THIRD 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANTS OF ERIN...NEAR 20N42W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT