000 AXNT20 KNHC 141147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE W AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 17N20W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N21W TO 9N21W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE COVERS THE AREA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 18W- 27W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N83W THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 16N83W TO 12N84W. WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE COVERS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 13N-22N BETWEEN 76W-88W INCLUDING JAMAICA...CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BE MORE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N39W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N40W TO 10N40W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 14/0600 UTC ANALYSIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N17W THROUGH THE FIRST 1010 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE THEN ALONG 13N33W TO THE SECOND 1010 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE TO 12N42W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 28W-39W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 40W-48W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 42W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER W TEXAS EXTENDING AN AXIS E ACROSS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COVERING THE NW GULF W OF LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-93W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA ALONG 23N90W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N92W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE S GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 82W-96W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT. THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD REACHING THE MEXICAN COAST THIS WEEKEND OVER THE SW GULF ACCOMPANIED BY LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MERGE WITH A TROUGH MOVING E THROUGH THE NE GULF WATERS FRI THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND THE ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY ARE DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG 9N75W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-71W. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS E CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST BETWEEN 69W-71W. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WHEN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 68W TO OVER GEORGIA AND ANCHORED NEAR 30N72W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N61W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 65W FROM 26N-32N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 58W-65W AND WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. GOES R INDICATES AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WITHIN 225/250 NM OF LINE FROM AFRICA NEAR 25N16W TO 22N30W 18N46W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW