000 AXNT20 KNHC 030554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N80W IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ATLC COAST MOVING SLOWLY NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD. ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...THIS AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FALLS WITHIN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING E OF 73W AND W OF 81W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS MOVED OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND IS EXPECTED TO ABSORB ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 78W- 82W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N27W TO 20N27W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND MONSOON TROUGH AXIS INTERSECTION NEAR 16N27W. SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST...CONVECTION IS CONFINED S OF 13N AND IS LARGELY MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL WINDS BETWEEN 22W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N94W TO 24N93W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK AREA OF GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING AND RELATIVE VORTICITY ALONG 94W MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PROGRESSING WESTWARD TOWARD THE MEXICO COASTS OF 25N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 16N27W TO 11N29W TO 07N43W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N43W TO 09N50W TO 06N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N25W TO 05N38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS NEAR 32N98W AND IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IT REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE WITH MOISTURE NOTED GENERALLY S OF 25N. AT 03/0300 UTC A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED S OF 24N ALONG 93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 25N. THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDS EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PRIMARILY W OF 80W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W. A FEW SHOWER ARE OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH E OF 83W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOOKING AHEAD...RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING W OF 90W IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 20N83W THAT IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING N OF 18N W OF 77W. FARTHER SOUTH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 12N75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10N IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 80W- 86W...WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SPREADING NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD N OF 16N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES E OF 75W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF 65W...AND ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 68W. OTHERWISE...THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD REACHING 74W AS OF 03/0500 UTC. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY EARLIER AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS ARRIVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN ARE CENTERED OFF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 78W-82W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N55W AND A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N30W. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING...A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT. THE AIR LAYER HAS PROGRESSED TO 74W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STABLE CONDITIONS. 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