000 AXNT20 KNHC 300556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N34W TO 11N32W TO 08N31W MOVING W AT 5 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE NOTED AS A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 11N32W. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH MOSTLY SCATTERRED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...EXTENDS FROM 24N70W TO 14N71W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE GOES OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS NOW W OF A MID-LEVEL CENTER AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 21N66W. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 67W-69W....WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-74W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO 14N20W TO 11N32W TO 05N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 12W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N82W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W. PREFRONTAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 80W-83W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 32N101W PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N GULF. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED IN THE GULF OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N- 22N BETWEEN 89W-92W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT... AND FOR TROPICAL CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S FLORIDA FROM THE BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER MOST OF CUBA AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED. SIMILAR SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM NICARAGUA TO BELIZE. ELSEWHERE... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 09N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 74W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W...WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AT 10-15 KT...AND FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HAITI HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE LOSS OF PEAK HEATING AND INSTABLITY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO TRAVERSING THE ISLAND AND IS ANOTHER SOURCE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO REFORM AGAIN TUESDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W TO E CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N65W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N71W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF CUBA DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA