000 AXNT20 KNHC 161105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W... MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE POSITION AGREES WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 700 MB GFS TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 42W AND 55W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N61W 14N60W 11N57W MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N55W 14N58W 18N59W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 8N20W AND 6N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N26W TO 6N30W AND 5N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 86W...AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 55W AND FLORIDA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERS THE AREA. MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE PRESENT IN THE AREA. ONE IS NEAR 27N68W. A SECOND ONE IS NEAR 27N79W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N79W TO 24N77W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N64W 23N64W 20N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N74W 23N76W 26N78W...FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W...AND FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 100W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N90W 24N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...AND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER PARTS OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...FROM HOUSTON TO BEAUMONT. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MULTILAYERED CEILINGS ARE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KEMK AND KIPN. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE ICAO STATION KEIR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N63W 16N70W 12N78W. SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH COLOMBIA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD. SOME OF IT BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW... THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N61W 14N60W 11N57W MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N55W 14N58W 18N59W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN FROM 5N TO 9N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 80W...AND IN PANAMA FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE 17N61W 14N60W 11N57W TROPICAL WAVE MAY REACH HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES IT AT THE MOMENT. THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS A TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 27N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REACHES 32N34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N23W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N32W...TO 28N40W 28N50W AND 28N60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 42 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 14N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT