000 AXNT20 KNHC 100006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 63.7W ABOUT 238 NM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. ITS PRESENT MOVEMENT IS W-NW AT 23 KT AND IT HAS A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT WITH 65 KT GUSTS. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A W-NW TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ITS CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 60W-66W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N20W TO 06N21W MOVING W-SW NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. SAL DRY AIR IS TO THE N OF THIS WAVE AND CURRENTLY SPREADS OVER A LITTLE PORTION OF ITS AXIS N OF 14N. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 216 NM EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 08N-14N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM 11N33W TO 03N37W MOVING W-SW NEAR 5 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW SAL DRY AIR WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. ITS AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 22N87W TO 13N88W AND IS MOVING NEAR 10 KT. HIGH LOWER LEVELS MOISTURE AS WELL AS A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BELIZE AS WELL AS NORTHERN GUATEMALA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO 10N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N23W TO 07N32W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N38W TO 01S47W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ALREADY DISCUSSED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT SURROUNDS THIS HIGH AND SPREADS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 22N. OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES NOW MOVING AROUND THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS PART OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN IS MOVING W-NW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N81W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE WEST FLORIDA COAST FROM 24N-26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 92W-95W AS WELL AS S OF 21N W OF 95W. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS DRY AIR. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME TROUGHINESS LINGERING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W-NW ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARDS THE NE GULF WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND AS OF 2100 UTC ITS CENTER LIES ABOUT 238 NM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 60W-66W. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A W-NW TRACK AND ITS CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N W OF 70W ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. N OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED W OF THE BAHAMAS. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO BANK LOW CLOUDS FROM HONDURAS TO NORTHERN PANAMA WHICH IS GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS AND WITHIN 80 NM OF ITS COASTLINES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FAST W-NW TRACK AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED W OF THE BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY WED AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE ISLAND AND EXIT NW HAITI VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL SHOULD BE WATCHED CLOSELY. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE UP FOR ALL OF HISPANIOLA WITH A HURRICANE WATCH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS PART OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN IS MOVING W-NW ACROSS THE W ATLC...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SE GULF. THIS TROUGH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED W OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 73W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS AXIS IS ALONG 30N39W SW TO 26N45W AND THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE BESIDES THE FEATURES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS