000 AXNT20 KNHC 250002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST OFF THE WESTERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO IN THE MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO TO 23N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W...MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N20W AND 8N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 8N25W AND IT CONTINUES TO 6N30W 4N35W AND 3N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER LAND...IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 102W/103W IN MEXICO. THIS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TROPICAL STORM COSME THAT IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N84W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 32N77W...INTO GEORGIA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN TEXAS IN BROWNSVILLE AND PORT ISABEL...AND IN FALFURRIAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN TEXAS IN BEAUMONT...IN FLORIDA...WITH RAIN IN MARIANNA...IN BROOKSVILLE...AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AT THE MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT IN ALABAMA...IN FLORIDA AT THE NAVAL AIR STATIONS IN PENSACOLA AND AT WHITING FIELD WITH THUNDER AND RAIN...AND IN VALPARAISO. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS COLOMBIA TOWARD PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND IT CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY CURVES NORTHEASTWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD CUBA... JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND BEYOND...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... FROM HONDURAS TO 19N BETWEEN 85W AND BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM 6N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 10N IN WESTERN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 72W IN VENEZUELA AND 75W IN COLOMBIA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. ALSO EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. HISPANIOLA... HISPANIOLA FINDS ITSELF ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH- EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO A 25N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE COVERING PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...THE BAHAMAS... AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 83W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC ARE...0.59 OF AN INCH IN GUADELOUPE...0.67 OF AN INCH FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.17 OF AN INCH FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST OFF THE WESTERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO IN THE MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO TO 23N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W...MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE CROSSING HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE A TROUGH... TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N37W 16N41W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N46W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 25W AND 57W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N50W TO 32N53W AND 31N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 32N77W...INTO GEORGIA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 28N47W AND 26N52W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 33N50W 31N57W STATIONARY FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N ALONG 55W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT