000 AXNT20 KNHC 240600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N59W TO 04N58W MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW HUMIDITY AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS HINDERING CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS BARELY DISCERNIBLE AT 700 MB IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUESDAY. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N48W TO 04N48W MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. THE WAVE AMPLITUDE IS DEPICTED CLEARLY AT 700 MB IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW A MODERATE MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 130 NM WEST OF THE AXIS N OF 10N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 07N23W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 07N23W AND IT CONTINUES TO 05N33W 05N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 15W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W HALF OF THE GULF W OF 90W AS WELL AS IN A PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 85W. THIS LEAVES THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE WEST CARIBBEAN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BASIN. THESE WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE WEST CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA SPREADS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COSTLINESS OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA AND COLOMBIA WHICH ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ABOUNDS. STRONGER TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE COURSE OF 48 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY SE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE TRAILING WAVE CURRENTLY WITH AXIS NEAR 49W IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH IT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SINCE TUE AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY LOWER LEVELS DRY CONDITIONS OVER HAITI AND MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH LIGHT TRADEWINDS OF 5 KT. HAZE AND BROKEN SKIES ARE REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS DISCUSSED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS DURING MONDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SURFACE DAYLIGHT HEATING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 14N FROM A SET OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BASIN WIDE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS