000 AXNT20 KNHC 192355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BARRY IS CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 95.5W AT 20/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 50 NM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MOVING W AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 89W-93W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 93W-98W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND THE FULL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N31W TO 6N32W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE DUST...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N65W TO 13N66W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 62W-67W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 8N22W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N36W 5N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 11W-16...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 16W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 50W- 59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N88W. TROPICAL STORM BARRY IS IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 90W-98W. MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND GUATEMALA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION OF BARRY...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND ANTI-CYCLONIC. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BARRY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SW GULF...WHILE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 71W. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA ALONG 9N TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 71W IS PROVIDING MOIST AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT IS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TRACKS WESTWARD. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE STILL TO THE EAST IS HELPING PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-73W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN EXTENDING FROM A 1033 MB AZORES HIGH. DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 24N69W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR WEST ATLC. THE UPPER LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE AROUND THE EAST SIDE ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 62W-68W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 55W...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N43W. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N44W TO 23N46W. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC...WHILE A THIRD WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 26N25W. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC...EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDING TO NEAR 57W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON