000 AXNT20 KNHC 161035 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 21N79W ALONG 17N81W TO 10N81W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS ALSO BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N18W TO 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N25W 7N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 16W-19W AND FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 27W-55W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4N-8N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM SW GEORGIA TO 27N84W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPLY SUPPORT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF FORT MYERS ALONG 28N84W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA WHERE IT CONTINUES INLAND N OF MOBILE ALABAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF NE OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING W AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N92W TO NEAR 19N92W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W AND ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 28N87W TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA BEYOND 30N91W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON ENTERING THE SW GULF EARLY TUE AND ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE THROUGH THU WITH SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE S OF 21N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 84W-90W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND EXTENDS E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDING N OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 76W-87W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 18N78W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W INCLUDING JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W-NW AND INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE MON. WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING THEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. HISPANIOLA... THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME SPARSE THIS MORNING BUT WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-80W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 16/0900 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N60W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N66W TO 26N71W WHERE IT IS WEAKENS AND BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER THE FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON. THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF FORT MYERS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N56W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W ALONG 25N64W TO BEYOND 32N58W. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AND BENIGN UPPER FEATURES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 33N42W AND WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING S OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS MORNING. WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE W OF 70W TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO NEAR BERMUDA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE THEN SHIFT S TO 28N THROUGH THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. 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