000 AXNT20 KNHC 140604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N62W 14N64W 9N65W...MOVING WEST 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.21 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...ALONG 86W/87W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N... MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA ABOUT 13/2200 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD...SPREADING ACROSS EL SALVADOR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W AND 8N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 5N43W AND 6N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 17W AND 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W IN MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 28N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N43W...TO 28N56W 26N65W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N88W...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS AND IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. VALPARAISO AND TAMPA... IN FLORIDA...ARE REPORTING A HIGH CLOUD CEILING. APALACHICOLA IS OBSERVING A CLOUD CEILING AT 8500 FEET. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KHQI AND KGUL. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD EAST-TO-WEST MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE MAY REACH HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS. THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS NOT ANALYZED THROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. HISPANIOLA... THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE MAY REACH HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN A RIDGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR MORE. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST. THE SAME MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN A RIDGE/AN AREA OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS PASSING ON TOP OF FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVENTUALLY REACHES HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE 250 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N40W TO 20N45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N43W...TO 28N56W 26N65W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N88W...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHT FROM 15N TO 19N TO THE WEST OF 57W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 22N TO THE EAST OF 40W. THE 30-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 31N72W 28N81W COLD FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT