000 AXNT20 KNHC 080601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 38.5N 75.0W AT 08/0300 UTC OR 13 NM NNE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND AND 26 NM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY MOVING NE AT 30 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 39 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 78W-81W. THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N42W TO 0N45W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH MAXIMUM MOISTURE EXTENDING WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE AXIS AS INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 43W-47W COINCIDING WITH THIS AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N52W TO 13N54W MOVING W-NW IN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AT 5 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MOISTURE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED AND IS MOSTLY CONFINED N OF 17N WITHIN 230 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT IS SHOWING SOME DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WHICH COULD BE LIMITING ITS CONVECTION TO ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N- 21N BETWEEN 55W-60W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 12N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N17W TO 04N30W 04N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N EAST OF 17W...FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 18W-23W AND FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 26W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 34W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING AT 0300 UTC FROM 26N86W TO 21N89W AND THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM A LOW NEAR 36N83W...ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED TO THE W SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 94W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. A PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERS IN THE SE GULF WITHIN THIS PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A NARROW INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS SW IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM LA HISPANIOLA ALL THE WAY TO PANAMA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DRY STABLE AIR IS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN PROVIDING FOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN. AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 53W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE CARIBBEAN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS REGION. HISPANIOLA... A NARROW INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM LA HISPANIOLA ALL THE WAY TO PANAMA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH IS FAVORING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE... EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED BETWEEN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N76W. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N W OF 77W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 33N30W TO 29N29W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS