000 AXNT20 KNHC 060605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR 26.8N 86.2W. ANDREA IS MOVING NORTHWARD 5 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG COVERS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM CUBA NEAR 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 90W...IN GUATEMALA...AND IN SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 7N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N16W 5N25W 6N32W AND 4N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 88W. THIS AREA IS AWAY FROM THE AREA THAT IS BEING AFFECTED BY T.S. ANDREA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N87W IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 25N97W ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LIGHT RAIN COVERS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATION KEHC AND KGUL. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 0 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WITHIN 60 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SEA HEIGHTS 12 FEET OR GREATER ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 270 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...BEYOND 32N80W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 11N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS OCCURRING AT 05/2115 UTC HAS WEAKENED. REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W IN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 84W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...BEYOND 32N80W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE PATTERN CHANGES GRADUALLY AFTER 24 HOURS...TRENDING INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS THAT NORTH- EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW PASS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE/ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE WEST. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N10W...THROUGH SOUTHERN MOROCCO...TO 25N15W IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N43W...THROUGH 32N56W...TO 27N66W AND 23N70W... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N23W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 44W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 16N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT