000 AXNT20 KNHC 030604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N31W 9N33W 6N34W. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THIS WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAL DRY AIR. THE METEOSAT-9 PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROWN HAZE OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF THIS WAVE...WHICH INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF SAL DUST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N55W 12N57W... TO 7N58W ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THIS WAVE IS AHEAD OF THE SAL OUTBREAK SPREADING OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W TO 11N20W AND 11N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N22W TO 6N43W AND 10N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 3W AND 20W...FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W...FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EAST TEXAS...THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO MEXICO NEAR 26N102W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THAT WAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 22N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAS DISSIPATED. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS TEXAS TO THE EAST OF 99W...REACHING THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS FOR ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE. SIMILAR DRY AIR IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N82W 26N91W 22N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N87W...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO FORM BY 24 HOURS...AND BE NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NORTH OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BELIZE... THE WESTERN HALF OF HONDURAS...AND NEIGHBORING EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 20N TO WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 86W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA OF THE EASTERNMORE FOUR STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. FAIR SKIES COVER THE AREA OF THE WESTERNMORE FOUR STATIONS THAT ARE ALSO IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE VISIBILITY AT BAY CITY TEXAS IS 2 MILES WITH FOG. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO LOUISIANA...AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EVEN AS FAR TO THE EAST AS TALLAHASSEE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO COVER THE AREA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA...AND IN MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE ICAO STATION KSPR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A DEVELOPING 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 24.5N87W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA TO HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17.5N TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 82W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 36N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 26N71W 24N72W. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES HISPANIOLA...BEING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD...WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 25N66W BEYOND 32N63W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS A RIDGE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE RECEIVING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HISPANIOLA APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST...AT 250 MB. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N31W 19N39W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N56W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 17.5N TO THE WEST OF 45W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12.5N TO 16N TO THE EAST OF 40W. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO BE ALONG 38W/39W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. EXPECT NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT