000 AXNT20 KNHC 021755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N28W 6N32W MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST THAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 30W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N54W 9N55W MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. IT ALSO IS AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF DUST THAT EXTENDS AROUND THE EASTERNMOST WAVE AND CONTINUES TO ABOUT 54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 54W-58W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 11N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 11N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N34W 9N53W. BESIDES NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 11W- 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 16W- 20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 25W-27W...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 49W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SEVERAL AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARE THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO. STARTING IN THE NW CORNER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 89W-98W CONTINUING INTO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE SW GULF. A WEAK 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N94W. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST ALONG 25N87W TO 18N92W. MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PRESENT THOUGH IN THE SW GULF FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 90W-96W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 23N- 25N EAST OF 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS ELSEWHERE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW IS SOUTHEASTERLY RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. THE WINDS ARE MORE CYCLONIC AROUND THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MAY BE STRONGER IN THE AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS THROUGHOUT AROUND BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A BETTER DEFINED LOW CENTER MAY FORM ALONG THE TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 83W-89W IMPACTING EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 79W-82W...AND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 83W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY DRY IN COMPARISON WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE NW CORNER. THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER VERY MOIST CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING TOMORROW. HISPANIOLA... MOIST AIR REMAINS OVER AND NEAR HISPANIOLA TO BOTH THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE ISLAND WITH DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE ISLAND MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BUILD AS THE DAY GOES ON. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE ISLAND BY 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 26N70W TO 23N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE AREA WITH AXIS NEAR 69W PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 62W-71W...AND FROM 22N- 27N BETWEEN 71W-75W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THIS LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TO THE EAST...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N53W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FORM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 22N40W...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE BASIN. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC AS WELL. IT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 18N12W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DUST OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND NORTH OF THE EASTERNMOST TROPICAL WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON