000 AXNT20 KNHC 010005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N42W 9N43W 6N44W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO IS AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF DUST THAT HAS MOVED OFF AFRICA. MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS AT THE 315 KELVIN LEVEL ALSO HAVE INDICATED THAT A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A RIDGE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W... TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N18W...TO 9N23W AND 6N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N29W TO 7N35W AND 8N40W... TO 8N43W...AND 5N56W IN NORTH CENTRAL SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF AFRICA FROM 6N ALONG THE LIBERIA COAST TO 15N IN SENEGAL... FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N29W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W... AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 96W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN CUBA TO THE EAST OF 79W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W... INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W... NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 19N81W CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N67W 23N67W...CROSSING OVER PUERTO RICO... INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N66W...TO 12N66W OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/1200 UTC...ARE 2.35 IN TRINIDAD... 1.82 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.66 IN GUADELOUPE... 0.94 IN SAINT THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...0.59 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.19 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH MARKS THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA FROM 30/1500 UTC. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N96W 19N96W 18N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM THE COAST TO 21N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF INLAND MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 97W...INCLUDING THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THIS AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 34N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 24N95W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE AREA OF THE EASTERNMORE FOUR STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. FAIR SKIES COVER THE AREA OF THE WESTERNMORE FOUR STATIONS THAT ARE ALSO IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF COASTAL ALABAMA. BROKEN MULTI- LAYERED CEILINGS COVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED FROM NAPLES TO SARASOTA ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE ICAO STATION KHQI...AND THE ICAO STATION KVBS THAT IS OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/1200 UTC...ARE 2.35 IN TRINIDAD... 1.82 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.66 IN GUADELOUPE... 0.94 IN SAINT THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...0.59 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.19 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...TO 11N84W IN NORTH CENTRAL COSTA RICA... BEYOND 13N87W IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 69W...IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 10N...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN PANAMA TO THE WEST OF 81W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO THE NORTH OF 10N...WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND AT LEAST THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. EXPECT EASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 17N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 83W. HISPANIOLA... NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 19N81W CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N67W 23N67W...CROSSING OVER PUERTO RICO... INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N66W...TO 12N66W OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND NOW. THE 700 MB GFS...THE 500 MB GFS...AND THE 250 MB FORECASTS SHOW THAT A RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N61W TO 34N77W...THAT IS JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 34N77W INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 24N95W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N55W 29N57W 27N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 31N43W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N33W TO 29N40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W. ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF LINE FROM 16N61W TO 15N45W TO 20N35W EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEA HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 11N58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT