000 AXNT20 KNHC 240003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 00S50W TO 07N51W MOVING W AT 7-10 KT. THE WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND NEARBY AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE WIND STREAMLINES SHOWS A WEAK SIGNAL OF THIS WAVE AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 47W-52W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N18W TO 03N30W TO 02N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 29W-45W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 20W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 29N88W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL MODERATELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT WHICH SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUES OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN ENHANCEMENTS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE FROM THE EASTERN CONUS TO THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THESE TROUGHINESS IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHEREAS LIGHTER WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT DOMINATE THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE ISLAND WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLAND. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY ENHANCEMENTS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST RAINSHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN HAITI THIS EVENING. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTION PREVAIL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE FROM THE EASTERN CONUS TO THE BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N73W TO 25N76W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROUGH FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 73W-77W. OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N44W TO 28N48W TO 30N50W AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N38W TO 26N39W TO 24N43W. NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ASSOCIATED TO THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH CENTERS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS