000 AXNT20 KNHC 210547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N36W TO EQ38W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO DISRUPTS THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 6N65W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 57W-65W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING ALONG 4N23W TO 4N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W TO 4N35W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 1N39W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 11N E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W... FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-38W...AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED OVER ALL BUT SE FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF TONIGHT...THUS CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO N OF 21N. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE NE GULF FRI SLOWLY SINKING S THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA GIVING THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 16N IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 67W-84W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST BETWEEN GUANTANAMO AND THE GULF OF ANA MARIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-81W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND LA ROMANA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST TOMORROW WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND TUE INTO WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N75W TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 79W-81W INCLUDING SE FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N48W ALONG 28N55W TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 54W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N48W TO 24N46W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW