000 AXNT20 KNHC 172353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N49W TO 2N50W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS COINCIDING WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED AREA OF MAXIMUM POTENTIAL VORTICITY AT 315K. TOTAL PRECIPITATABLE WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATE A MAXIMUM IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CLOUDINESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 44W- 53W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 6N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 6N20W TO 2N32W TO 1N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 14W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIONIS FROM 0N- 4N BETWEEN 30W-38W...AND FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N68W PROVIDING SURFACE RIDGING AND 10-15 KT SW FLOW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA....AND W CUBA. IN ADDITION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE OVER S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N BETWEEN 92W-97W MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO...AND THE S GULF S OF 24N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER S FLORIDA... THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA... AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N BETWEEN 73W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA E OF 81W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO EXTEND OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO FORM DUE MOSTLY TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N56W TO 23N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO 27N46W. AN EMBEDDED 1020 MB LOW IS ON THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 29N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N47W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE S BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA