000 AXNT20 KNHC 080509 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 7N20W TO 5N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N25W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 11W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 20W-25W... AND FROM 5N-2S BETWEEN 25W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-1S BETWEEN 32W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC... A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF PRODUCING SEAS OF ONLY 1-3 FT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N81W PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO BE NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF HISPANIOLA AT 18N70W TO NW VENEZUELA AT 10N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER S...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-75W. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. THE W CARIBBEAN HAS 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. ONLY BEAUFORT ONE SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W AT 5-10 KTS. TLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC...A TRIPLE POINT IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AT 34N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 34N71W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 25N76W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM 34N71W TO 26N65W. FURTHER E...A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N35W TO 26N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N24W TO 23N24W TO 20N40W DISSIPATING TO 19N50W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLAND AT 19N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 20N. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N19W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E...WHILE THE E ATLANTIC FRONT MOVES STEADILY E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. $$ FORMOSA