000 AXNT20 KNHC 031112 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO 2N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1N37W AND 1N42W. A SECOND PART OF THE ITCZ IS ALONG 1S17W 3S23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 3S29W 2S34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 2N16W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N2W 2N7W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W... AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N30W 1N35W 2N41W...AND 4N48W 6N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 8W AND 15W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8S BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA TO 25N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... TO 21N92W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO 24N93W...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W... INTO MEXICO NEAR 25N103W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 94W. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE COMPARATIVELY WESTERN AND MORE INLAND STATIONS IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE REST OF FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGVX...KVBS...KGUL...KCRH...KGBK...KHQI... KMYT...KEIR...AND KSPR. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KIPN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING...FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS... TO THE WEST OF THE 30N91W 26N92W COLD FRONT FROM 22N TO 27N. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 30 KNOT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA...BELIZE...HONDURAS... AND NICARAGUA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO 27N84W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N84W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE LOUISIANA COAST THAT IS ALONG 90W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN CUBA IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO NORTHERN BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST OF 29N90W 26N90W 24N83W. A THIRD AND SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN FLORIDA...FROM 30N82W TO 27N83W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR TO 19N BETWEEN 81W AND 89W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND LAND FROM THE HONDURAS/ NICARAGUA BORDER...COVERING ALL OF HONDURAS...EARLIER IN EL SALVADOR AND IN BELIZE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE 24N68W 29N72W BEYOND 32N76W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND NORTH- WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE EASTERNMOST POINT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NEAR 10N88W. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO REACH COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 4N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 84W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 60W FROM 19N BEYOND 32N. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 76W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N50W 25N60W 22N71W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 41N36W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 31N29W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N29W TO 26N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 31N27W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE CURVES THROUGH 32N20W TO 24N29W 20N43W AND 12N58W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING...FOR EASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 10 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 77W. ALSO EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT