000 AXNT20 KNHC 290604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 2N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N16W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...TO 3S32W...TO 1S46W... INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 8N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS. PRECIPITATION IN TEXAS IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATER. THE WIND FLOW SPLITS IN DIRECTIONS NEAR 26N84W. PART OF THE WIND FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD INTO A RIDGE THAT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA. THE OTHER PART OF THE WIND FLOW IS NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THAT COVERS FROM CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS...COVERING THE AREA FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI- LAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W. SOME OF THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FOLLOWING THE PATTERN OF DEVELOPING...GROWING AND DISSIPATING...AND THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 87W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA TO PORT LAVACA. FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST AREA...AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF LOUISIANA. THE LATEST VISIBILITY IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA IS 1.25 MILES WITH A VERTICAL VISIBILITY OF 700 FEET. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLY REMNANT PRECIPITATION COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED IN PATTERSON LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLY REMNANT PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA AS YOU GO EASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD AND FROM THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA TO PUNTA GORDA. FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER ICAO STATIONS KSPR AND KEIR. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KMYT. FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 37N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE....TO 15N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 39N59W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N59W TO 31N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO 27N61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N64W 28N57W...TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N56W TO 28N54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N65W 19N67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO TO 15N76W...INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 8N78W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N87W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 37N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE....TO 15N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 39N59W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N59W TO 31N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO 27N61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N64W 28N57W...TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N56W TO 28N54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N65W 19N67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 37N40W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A 1007 MB SURFACE MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N40W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N27W TO 31N26W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N52W. A SECOND 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N35W. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N60W 17N50W 21N35W 23N24W...BEYOND 20N16W AT THE COAST OF MAURITANIA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. EXPECT ALSO WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N35W 22N50W 25N65W. THE 30-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES A 31N49W 25N57W SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT