000 AXNT20 KNHC 221151 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON APR 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W... JUST OFF THE BORDER WITH SIERRA LEONE...TO 5N15W AND 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W TO 2N30W 2N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 2N3W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 34W AND 52W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO SPEED DIVERGENCE THAN TO THE ITCZ. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N87W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 27N86W. THE REST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N88W 24N89W...TO 20N89W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA...TOWARD MIAMI/FORT LAUDERDALE... AND CURVING TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W 28N79W 26N81W 24N83W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND POSSIBLY CUBA. THE OBSERVATIONS FOR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES AT 12000 FEET OR LOWER. PATTERSON MEMORIAL AIRPORT IN PATTERSON LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING OF 200 FEET. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL SECTIONS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... ICAO STATION KHQI IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH HAZE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT ICAO STATION KGUL...ICAO STATION KMYT...AND ICAO STATION KSPR. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N60W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W AND 14N63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNT FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE IS 0.26 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERTATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 79W. THE WIND FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE ELSE...AND IT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 20N60W 14N65W 13N66W TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N60W 12N70W 12N76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N65W...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N66W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N76W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 6N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 72W. A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 31N77W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING EASTWARD...FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND 82W FROM CUBA NORTHWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 25N65W... ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N66W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N50W...TO A SECOND AND WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N60W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W AND 14N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N38W...TO 29N36W 24N35W 21N40W 20N46W AND 21N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N33W 21N38W 20N46W 21N55W 27N60W BEYOND 31N60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 26N23W TO 15N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT