000 AXNT20 KNHC 151805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W... TO 3S34W AND 4S39W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 13W AND 14W...AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 36W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N76W TO FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO 22N90W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N78W...TO NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR 29N85W TO THE SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...TO 30N90W IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 85W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC IS 0.98 OF AN INCH. THE RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE SAME 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD IS 0.18 OF AN INCH... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERTATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 23N73W BEYOND 32N70W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 94W/95W TO THE NORTH OF 21N. FAIR SKIES COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME HAZE...AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS...COVERS THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TOWARD AND INCLUDING IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LOW VISIBILITIES WITH DRIZZLE ARE BEING REPORTED IN MOBILE ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION COVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE CENTRAL SECTIONS EASTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM THE WESTERN PANHANDLE TO TALLAHASSEE. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE REPORTED IN PERRY. SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. FAIR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE SOUTH OF BROOKSVILLE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LOWER ARE AT THE TEXAS ICAO STATIONS KBBF AND KGVX. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGUL...KGBK...KMYT...KSPR...AND KHQI. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W...TO 14N80W...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA... THROUGH 8N78W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N81W IN PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W AT 15/0845 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN 79W AND 80W WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N...TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. ALSO EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 26N53W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 43W. THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 31N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N59W TO 31N66W TO THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 45W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 28N47W TO 16N56W...TO 12N59W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N38W...TO A SECOND 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N57W...TO 28N72W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N42W TO 21N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT