000
AXNT20 KNHC 121032
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 9N13W CONTINUING ALONG 4N15W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N28W 2N41W 2N48W TO INLAND OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-12W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S 
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS MOVING 
NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 12/0900 
UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 
PANAMA CITY THEN ALONG 23N91W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 20N93W TO 
INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/ 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 45 NM OF A 
LINE FROM 27N86W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N AND S OF 23N W OF 92W TO 
INLAND OVER MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND 
WITHIN IN THE FLORIDA BAY. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 
SARASOTA FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO BY THIS EVENING THEN 
STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE FROM FORT MYERS TO NW YUCATAN 
MEXICO BY LATE SAT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT 
AND MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                             
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER 
PANAMA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO 
THE W ATLC. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS 
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO 
INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE 
COAST S OF 20N INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
REMAIN OVER HAITI AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. THE TRADE WINDS ARE 
USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN 
FROM 14N-18N E OF 71W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS 
MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH 
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER PANAMA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N 
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N74W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 
68W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC 
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 14N BETWEEN 40W-68W. A BROAD SURFACE 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL 
ATLC NEAR 30N53W AND A 1022 MB HIGH IS W OF MERIDA ISLANDS NEAR 
33N21W. THE 1023 MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA THIS EVENING. 
THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM FROM 32N75W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH 
FLORIDA BY LATE SAT. BY LATE SUN THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE 
EASTWARD N OF 29N REACHING FROM 32N62W TO 30N74W THEN AS A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW