000 AXNT20 KNHC 020803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N15W 0N25W TO 0N29W WHERE THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 1N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 9W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING OVER THE W GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 02/0300 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY TO THE N CHANDELEUR ISLANDS OF LOUISIANA. THE NE GULF IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS S OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N86W. THE CONFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 22N-26N W OF 86W. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG 100W. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF LATE WED AND MOVE NE TO NEAR PENSACOLA LATE THU. THE LOW WILL THEN ACCELERATE NE OF THE AREA FRI WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTING SE OF THE GULF FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BENIGN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO OVER COLOMBIA. RELATIVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THEN WILL DIMINISH WED AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 02/0300 UTC NEAR 32N79W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR THE GEORGIA BORDER CONTINUING INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N75W TO THE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR VERO BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE 25N W OF 69W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N30W ALONG 27N41W TO 24N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N52W. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS A MAJOR PORTION OF THE ATLC ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AFRICA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE W OF 75W THU AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL SHIFT N OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N65W TO E CUBA SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW