000
AXNT20 KNHC 010514
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT MON APR 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 12N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N19W 3N21W TO 2N30W WHERE 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 1N35W TO 1N42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 
FROM 2N11W 1N16W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF GHANA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
N OF 25N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND 
TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO 
OVER THE E GULF. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NE 
GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 
60 NM OF LINE FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 27N88W. SOME 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CUBA AND 
THE FLORIDA KEYS BETWEEN 80W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL PUSH S INTO THE N GULF WED. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W LATE WED AND MOVE 
TO NEAR 29N86W LATE THU. THE LOW WILL THEN SHIFT NE OF THE AREA 
FRI WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTING SE OF THE GULF FRI 
NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BENIGN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER CENTRAL 
HONDURAS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. REMNANT MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N TO OVER GREATER 
ANTILLES BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OF 
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC PRODUCING 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN DIMINISH WED AS THE W 
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A BENIGN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA TO 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N63W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH N OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N47W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N53W TO 
26N61W. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS A MAJOR PORTION OF THE ATLC 
ANCHORED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SPAIN 
AND PORTUGAL IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES INTO THE E 
ATLC NEAR 32N15W ALONG 25N32W TO NEAR 21N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 27W. W ATLC 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON EVENING 
THEN WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE ACROSS W ATLC N OF 29N MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. SE WINDS WILL 
INCREASE W OF 75W THU AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IN 
THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL SHIFT N OF THE FORECAST AREA 
FRI WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE THE FAR W ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW