000 AXNT20 KNHC 290605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 5N17W AND 1N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 1S27W...TO THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 35W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W...FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 13W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 20W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N66W. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 25N50W 20N63W...TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N71W. A SHEAR AXIS FOR WIND SPEED CONTINUES FROM 18N71W TO 17N74W AND 16N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N10W 33N30W 30N43W 27N50W 23N60W 20N70W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 18N82W 15N84W IN EASTERN HONDURAS...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF JAMAICA TO 14N80W AND 9N80W AT THE COAST OF PANAMA. THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THAT PART OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THAT PART OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N87W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GALE-FORCE WIND THAT WAS BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ENDED. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FORECAST FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE IN THIS AREA. ICAO STATION KGVX...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST... IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 3200 FEET. ICAO STATION KGBK IS OBSERVING A CEILING AT 3400 FEET. NO STATION IS REPORTING SUSTAINED 20 KNOT WINDS. SOME OF THE STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS ARE REPORTING LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS... SUCH AS REYNOSA AND MATAMOROS IN MEXICO...AND IN TEXAS BROWNSVILLE AND PORT ISABEL. CLEAR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE GULF COAST PLAINS ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF TEXAS...TO FLORIDA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE 28/1200 UTC ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD WITH TIME. IT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N55W TO 17N56W...TO 13N61W JUST TO THE EAST OF SAINT VINCENT...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 70W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIGINATES IN NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 9N66W TO 14N77W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL HONDURAS TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOTW WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N54W 19N37W BEYOND 32N24W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 22N64W TO 24N70W...TO 29N79W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...TO THE 1026 MB NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N10W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N29W TO 22N39W 19N57W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N37W 20N62W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 35W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N TO THE EAST OF 50W TO 35W...EXCEPT 12 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 26N. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 31N73W TO 22N60W. 12 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE EAST OF 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT