000
AXNT20 KNHC 231757
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC BY COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W THEN CONTINUING ACROSS 3N20W 
TO 1N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N30W TO EQ36W 2S42W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXES BETWEEN 21W AND 36W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREAD 
OVER THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF AND 
ADJACENT WATERS...CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED 
BY DRY AIR ALOFT OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
SOUTHERLY WIND IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE 
REGION...HOWEVER WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL 
GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE BEING 
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27N ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG AND HAZE. 
THIS SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO THIS REGION 
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. OVER THE NE GULF...A PREVIOUS 
WARM FRONT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORDA TO 29N83W 29N87W TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA 
NEAR 29N89W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY N OF 28N 
E OF 88W. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT 
WILL DISSIPATE WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF 
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                             
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATE THE  
BASIN AND THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR ALOF OVER 
MOST OF THE REGION SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN 
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM ALONG THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA DUE TO A BURST OF INLAND 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND 
VENEZUELA. IN TERMS OF WINDS...EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15 KT 
DOMINATE THE  CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE NORTHEASTERLY 
TRADES UP TO 20 KT ARE ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY 
FLOW UP TO 25 KT IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W N OF 15N. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
AS OF 1500 UTC...A PORTION OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ENTERS THE W ATLC WATERS NEAR 29N81W TO 
29N80W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM 
E OF THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 28N. FURTHER EAST A 1019 MB HIGH IS 
LOCATED NEAR 27N69W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE PRECEDES A COLD FRONT 
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N48W AND EXTENDS ALONG 
26N51W TO 20N59W WHERE IT TRANSITION TO A DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N 
OF 21N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND THE IMMEDIATE 
VICINITY OF THE REMAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COLD FRONT IS 
BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS W OF 
45W N OF 27N. OVER THE E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS N 
OF 18N EAST OF 48W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 
29N33W. WITHIN THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT 
WILL BE DISPLACED EASTWARD AND LAST FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS PRODUCING 
SHOWERS IN THE W ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE W ATLC HIGH IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD DISPLACING THE COLD FRONT TO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR