000 AXNT20 KNHC 151124 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA... AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N20W TO 7N242W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W TO 4N37W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W... TO 2S49W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 14W...TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N76W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N66W...TO 19N77W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SHEAR AXIS DIVIDES THE AREA BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 5 TO 10 KNOT WINDS...FROM 19N77W ACROSS JAMAICA TO 16N80W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W 22N69W 17N80W...AND FROM 13N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N72W. THIS FRONT REPRESENTS A SECOND SURGE OF COMPARATIVELY COLDER AIR AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM MEXICO...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N89W...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE AREA...FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... AND ALL OF FLORIDA. BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR TEXAS IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN 3 MILES WITH FOG. VICTORIA TEXAS IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1/4 OF A MILE AND A VERTICAL VISIBILITY OF 200 FEET. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ICAO STATIONS KHQI AND KCRH ARE REPORTING OVERCAST CLOUDS AT 4400 FEET AND AT 5000 FEET...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE AT ICAO STATION KGBK. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 7N57W 16N58W 26N56W...BEYOND 32N51W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS IN GENERAL ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 20N75W 17N80W 15N84W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 7N57W 16N58W 26N56W...BEYOND 32N51W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 24N31W TO 15N32W AND 5N37W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT...THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N30W...TO 23N33W AND 19N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 25N24W 17N40W 16N50W 15N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO 24N55W TO 19N64W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N71W AND TO 14N79W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 22N20W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... TO 13N32W AND 13N42W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 31N61W 24N69W 21N75W COLD FRONT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 78W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N68W 28N75W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 73W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. A THIRD COLD FRONT IS ALONG 23N35W 19N41W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 11 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 23N35W 31N45W. ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM 20N35W TO 07N57W TO A LINE FROM 31N56W TO 19N68W WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT