000 AXNT20 KNHC 082356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI MAR 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG THE BORDER OF SENEGAL/BISSAU GUINEA CONTINUING ALONG 8N17W 5N17W TO 2N24W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-41W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 4N18W 2N27W TO 2N35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE GULF TO OVER THE E CONUS NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND THE E CONUS ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER S MICHIGAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE W GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW IS AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF/E CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E INTO W ATLC MON ALLOWING SE RETURN FLOW W OF 95W AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS NW GULF SUN NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY MON AND FROM N FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N52W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO S NICARAGUA. THIS IS GIVING THE BASIN MAINLY SW TO W WINDS ALOFT. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N80W TO NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA NEAR 12N84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 50W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N57W TO 21N64W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OVER N HAITI NEAR 19N72W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND E CONUS IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE W ATLC W OF 75W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N49W ALONG 24N54W TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N61W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 41W-50W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 24N36W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR E ATLC ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N28W AND SPLITS THE ABOVE SURFACE RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLIDE E TO OVER THE NE ATLC. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC DURING THE DAY TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW