000
AXNT20 KNHC 061140
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 
04N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
04N14W TO 01N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 10W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT SUPPORTS 
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF 
WATERS VIA THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 29N83W. THE COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N90W TO 24N95W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 
20N96W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW 
THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT AND WEST OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 25N. IN 
ADDITION...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF AS THE FRONT MOVES 
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AS 
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN 
GULF ALONG 92W BY EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER 
VENEZUELA NEAR 09N61W WHICH IS PROVIDING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN 
BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE UPPER 
LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND NE CARIBBEAN. POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 
75W-84W...AND N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-70W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE NE 
CARIBBEAN FROM 20N57W TO 16N68W. OTHERWISE...E-NE TRADE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE SW NORTH 
ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENERALLY WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC COAST. WHILE A COLD FRONT 
SITS JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...IT IS 
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. 
CURRENTLY A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N69W AND IS 
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 30N W OF 75W. FARTHER EAST...A FAST MOVING 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 34N38W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N33W SW TO 30N38W TO 
20N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 21N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN