000 AXNT20 KNHC 031804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 9N16W 5N18W 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 2N30W 1N36W AND 1N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE TAMPA FLORIDA AREA...TO 24N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N100W IN MEXICO...TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THROUGH HONDURAS TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED TO THE WEST OF 90W...IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 3000 FEET TO 4500 FEET ARE REPORTED FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE ALABAMA BORDER. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...RANGING FROM 3000 FEET TO 4000 FEET...ARE IN THE COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...FROM 4000 FEET TO 6000 FEET ARE IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN SARASOTA AND 84W...AND AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...EXCEPT TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... TO THE EAST OF 90W. SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 28N AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET IN ABOUT 18 HOURS...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM 30N92W TO 22N98W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR 6N71W IN COLOMBIA...REACHING 11N69W AT THE VENEZUELA COAST. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR 11N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N80W TO 10N82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING FROM 11N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...ARE RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 16N77W TO 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 15N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. OTHER WIND CONDITIONS...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 78W AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 82W 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET...AND TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO 78W WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 14N55W 26N50W BEYOND 32N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 20W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 28N76W. A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 31N62W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N62W TO 30N64W 24N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N80W TO 10N82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.45 OF AN INCH. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W 25N70W...BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 27N30W TO 25N40W AND 26N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 12N38W 8N43W 4N45W. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N46W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 63W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING WITH THE 26N35W 25N40W 26N50W COLD FRONT...N OF 29N E OF 41W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT IN NW SWELL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT