000
AXNT20 KNHC 012339
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 
3N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
3N17W TO 0N30W TO 0N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
ITCZ BETWEEN 14W-43W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY EXITED THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. FAIR 
SKIES ARE OVER THE NW GULF ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA...AND 
TEXAS. FURTHER S...OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. RADAR IMAGERY 
ALSO SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS NOTED WITH A 110-170 KT JETSTREAM OVER 
THE N GULF N OF 26N. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 20-25 
KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO BE OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS W OF 90W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL 
ACCOMPANY THE WINDS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 
22N77W TO SW CUBA AT 21N84W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N86W. 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF 
THE FRONT. 12-25 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N 
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED 
FROM THE E PACIFIC TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN CONTRAST STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE 
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO W PANAMA WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT 20-30 KT WINDS TO BE W OF FRONT...WITH 
AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 
11N-16N W OF FRONT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO 25N70W TO 
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N43W. A COLD FRONT IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N19W TO 24N26W TO 20N36W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N 
BETWEEN 10W-35W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT BOTH 
COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA