000
AXNT20 KNHC 010003
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N10W TO 
2N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
2N17W TO 1S30W TO 2S40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 8W-19W...AND FROM 
1N-6N BETWEEN 23W-32W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 
22N84W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO 
SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W TO N 
OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT 20N96W. THIS FRONT IS VOID OF CONVECTION. 
AN AREA OF OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS OVER THE W 
GULF W OF 94W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS 
NEAR 31N99W THUS NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH 
15-20 KT WINDS N OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY 
ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH A 90-130 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N 
OF 24N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY 
FRONT ON LESS THAN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD 
AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER W CUBA...THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL... AND THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N 
COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA 
RICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS 
NOTED. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W W 
CUBA TO BELIZE WITH SHOWERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO 
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A REINFORCING 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT 
IS VOID OF CONVECTION. A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N51W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC FROM 31N25W TO 26N30W TO 22N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED FURTHER E 
NEAR 20N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 5N BETWEEN 20W-45W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC 
FRONT. EXPECT BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA