000 AXNT20 KNHC 271744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 02N16W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 13W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 31W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 25N81W TO 24N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF 26N E OF 86W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 86W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N94W. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...ENTERS THE NW GULF LATE WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDES INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EVIDENT FROM 08N-21N. AT THE SURFACE...LITTLE MOISTURE IS NOTED... HOWEVER AREAS OF SCATTERED CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITHIN TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT. THE HIGHEST OF THESE WINDS ARE GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-79W...AND WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED N OF 21N IN THE CHANNEL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY WHEN THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY PICK UP SUSTAINED MOVEMENT AS A COLD FRONT EASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. BY LATE FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL HAVE ARRIVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALE AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY EARLY SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N73W AND EXTENDING SW TO THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 27N W OF 60W...WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NORTH ATLC NEAR 45N44W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N35W TO 27N40W TO 22N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 40W AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 17N53W TO 20N49W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N30W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING IS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS W-NW TO 30N25W TO NEAR THE AZORES NEAR 38N28W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 13W-28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN