000 AXNT20 KNHC 260538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER GUINEA NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N24W 1N32W 1N43W THEN INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 4N11W TO 3N23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 25W-40W AND FROM THE ITCZ TO 6N BETWEEN 40W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER OKLAHOMA AND SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AT 26/0300 UTC OVER E LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY ALONG 25N91W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. THIS IS A FAST MOVING FRONT WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N90W TO OVER ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH TO CEDAR KEY INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N85W THEN NW TO OVER MOBILE ALABAMA. THE SOUTHERN SURFACE FLOW S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF E OF 85W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND SUNRISE TUE. THE FRONT WILL SLOW ON TUE AND DRIFT SE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE NIGHT AND WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED AND RACE ACROSS THE E GULF THU MOVING SE OF THE GULF ON THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN THE TRADE WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE STALLING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED INTO THU THEN BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON FRI. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SAT. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AND ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO BEYOND 32N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N49W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N58W 26N68W TO 27N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 72W. THE AREA S OF THE FRONT IS REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N21W TO 26N17W SUPPORTING A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 33N23W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 28N21W TO 21N26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 18W-21W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT AND THE ABOVE SURFACE LOW WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N38W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N72W TO S FLORIDA WED MORNING FROM BERMUDA TO W CUBA THU MORNING THEN FROM 32N57W TO E CUBA FRI MORNING BEFORE STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ON SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW