000
AXNT20 KNHC 221116
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC BY SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND EXTENDS TO 6N17W. 
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W TO 1N23W EQ30W EQ40W 1S44W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-10N BETWEEN 7W AND 52W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM 
29N91W 27N94W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
SKIES ARE N OF 25N WEST OF 87W ASSOCIATED TO THE COLD FRONT. 
SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT WHEREAS A LINE OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS EAST OF 
NEW ORLEANS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT 
SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN S AND E OF THE FRONT WHICH IS 
ADVECTING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST 
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUOUS RAINSHOWERS. LIGHTER 
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT LIE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 94W 
N OF 22N. S OF 25N CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. IN THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE COLD 
FRONT WILL DISPLACE EASTWARD AND WILL BE EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY 
FROM ALABAMA TO MATAMOROS MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 
15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE E OF 92W WHILE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY 
FLOW BUILDS S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF 92W. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD OVER THE 
CENTRAL...WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGIONS. IN THE SOUTHERN 
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N WINDS OF 20-30 KT DOMINATE. NEARLY WESTERLY 
FLOW AND VERY DRY AIR CONTINUE ALOFT THUS SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS 
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...S OF LA HISPANIOLA AND WEST OF 
JAMAICA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST 
OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. ELSEWHERE EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE WEST ATLC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N51W TO 28N54W 
26N59W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES 
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 21N ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH 
LOCATED NEAR 30N34W. E OF THE HIGH...A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N12W TO 27N19W. EXCEPT FOR 
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS...VERY DRY AIR COVERS ALMOST THE 
ENTIRE REGION ALOFT WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS 
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLC. IN 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT IN THE WEST 
ATLC WILL BE OVERRIDDEN BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA PLACING THE NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC. ALSO THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE OUT OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA LEAVING MOSTLY TRADEWINDS S OF 20N.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR