000 AXNT20 KNHC 182341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH SIERRA LEONE TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W TO NE BRAZIL. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED N OF 1N BETWEEN 2W AND 10W AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SLY RETURN FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT W OF 94W. THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS EARLY WED...THEN WILL SHIFT N AS A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO TEXAS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CONUS FROM THE N GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN IS GIVING THE GULF REGION NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. REMNANT COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHILE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A WINDSAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SOME WIND BARBS OF 30 KT IN LEE OF EASTERN CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOST OF THE WEEK. A VERY COLD NIGHT WAS REPORTED BY THE CUBAN WEATHER SERVICE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 10 DEGREES CELSIUS IN PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL CUBA. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE WAS REPORTED IN BAINOA WITH 4.0 DEGREES FOLLOWED BY TAPASTE WITH 4.9 DEGREES WHILE IN THE CITY OF HAVANA THE MERCURY DROPPED TO 11.9 DEGREES CELSIUS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...MOVES EWD AND WINDS VEER TO THE E AND SE HELPING THE TEMPERATURE TO RISE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME OF THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE CROSSING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N52W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 22N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY CROSSING HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY S OF 24N ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVES ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE AREA OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. E OF THE FRONT...A 1027 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 29N39W AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SE WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM 31N13W SW THEN W ALL THE WAY TO NEAR BARBADOS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SWLY FLOW IS SEEN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 90-110 KT OVER WESTERN AFRICA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR