000
AXNT20 KNHC 091723
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
7N12W TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N18W TO 0N30W TO 1N42W TO 
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 17W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS DOTS THE GULF N OF 22N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS 
FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER SE TEXAS MOVING E. PREFRONTAL 
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 70W-74W...AND OVER THE 
E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W 
OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO 
ADVECT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N62W 
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 24N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
36N26W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING THE 
SURFACE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 24N49W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC 
COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA