000
AXNT20 KNHC 082326
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 
4N12W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N21W 3N35W 
EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-37W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 32W-39W.  
   
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PAIR OF DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE FIRST IS THE ONE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE BASIN 
YESTERDAY AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE FLORID NEAR 26N80W TO 
24N89W. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS. 
THE SECOND FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO 27N94W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED IN 
THE SW GULF FROM 23N96W TO 19N93W. THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS 
PREVIOUSLY ON THE TROUGH AXIS HAS NOW DISSIPATED. POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA ALONG WITH 
MODERATELY DRY AIR...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS 
BETWEEN THE TWO DISSIPATING FRONTS. THE FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH PORTIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUING 
EASTWARD. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE 
FRONT AND DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE 
WEEKEND.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY 
AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
COVERING THE AREA CENTERED NORTH OF COLOMBIA. CLEAR SKIES SPREAD 
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING TRADEWIND 
FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT 
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NE CONUS. 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W TO 26N80W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE 
AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
THROUGH NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS 
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER 
RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE W ATLC 
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH. 
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE FAR 
EASTERN ATLC WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
AREA.   
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON