000 AXNT20 KNHC 081131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N15W AND CONTINUES TO 3N21W 4N34W 2N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 6W-12W AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 33W AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA THROUGH 26N85W TO 26N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 25N96W AND TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 19N95W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT FROM JUST S OF TAMPA BAY TO 25N87W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED PRIMARILY BETWEEN 26N-27N W OF IMMOKALEE FLORIDA TO THE TROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL IMPETUS FOR THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLC STATES LATER TODAY...USHERING IN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND PUSHING THE LEAD COLD FRONT E OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS DISSIPATES. THE ENCROACHING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW GULF. NO STRONG WINDS OR PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE HAS LIMITED THE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND HAMPERED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE THE ONLY CONTRIBUTION TO PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOUND E OF 70W. THE CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING TRADEWIND FLOW MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MAKE WAY FOR THE S END OF THE PHASED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLC STATES IS TURING NEGATIVE TILT THIS MORNING...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THAT LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH PHASES WITH THE STRONGER UPPER TROUGH TO ITS W DESCRIBED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS WANING AS THE SURFACE LOW ANCHORING THE FRONT AND ITS MID-LEVEL IMPETUS PROGRESS N AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...TAKING THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THEM. FARTHER EAST IN THE ATLC...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 32N54W TO 27N58W. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW ALONG 30N48W TO 22N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS TROUGH PRIMARILY S OF 25N. BOTH THE WEST ATLC STATIONARY FRONT AND THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE EAST ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 42N20W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN ATLC WITH MAINLY MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER/NR