000 AXNT20 KNHC 022348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT FEB 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N21W 5N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC AND OVER THE GULF N OF 26N. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT REMAINS OVER TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR PANAMA CITY. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COUPLED WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 26N AND FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 87W-94W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL RACE S ACROSS THE E GULF SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E ACROSS THE GULF ON SUN AND MON THEN WEAKENS MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF BY TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY WED. A NEW FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N66W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 10N60W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAR WEATHER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN AND DISSIPATE FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC N OF 26N W OF 55W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N57W CONTINUING ALONG 25N65W TO 24N71W WHERE IT BEGINS TO RETREAT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W CONTINUING TO 28N71W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 28N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THIS FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. TO THE S OF THESE FEATURES AND NE OF PUERTO RICO IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N64W TO 19N64W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-45W WITH AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 23N40W AND SUPPORTING A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N43W. THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 29N42W ALONG 26N37W TO 20N37W AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUING ALONG 16N41W TO 23N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN 120 NM OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 24N39W TO 19N47W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES. THE FRONTS CURRENTLY IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WILL BE ABSORBED BY A THIRD COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT. A SINGLE COLD FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE SUN AND REACH FROM 32N61W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ON MON THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER S OF 24N THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG 27N TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WED AND REACH FROM 32N67W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW