000
AXNT20 KNHC 311759
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 
7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N19W TO 1N30W TO 0N40W TO N 
BRAZIL NEAR 0N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
4N-1S BETWEEN 23W-29W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO W CUBA 
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 26N80W 20N88W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N94W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS 
ARE GOING AROUND THE HIGH WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 15 KT 
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE S OF 21N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
GULF WITH A 70-110 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. EXPECT 
THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ALSO 
EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO S LOUISIANA IN 12 HOURS...   
AND BE WELL N OF THE AREA IN 24 HOURS.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N88W TO N GUATEMALA AT 18N90W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT WINDS 
ARE N OF THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS 
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN S OF THE FRONT FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-87W. MORE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 
BELIZE IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N74W TO S FLORIDA 
AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 
1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N50W. A COLD 
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N33W TO 22N40W TO 19N45W. A 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER W FROM 32N34W TO 25N40W TO 
22N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 
33W-38W. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S PORTUGAL AT 38N9W. AN 
OUTBREAK OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 13N-27N E 
OF 39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W SUPPORTING THE E 
ATLANTIC FRONTS. EXPECT ALL FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A 1008 MB LOW TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N41W WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS NW 
OF THE CENTER.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA