000 AXNT20 KNHC 301203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 9N15W AND 8N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N17W TO 4N20W 2N27W 1N32W 1N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N84W...TO 27N83W IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND 32N80W...OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STILL IS LOCATED FROM NEBRASKA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PARALLELS THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST...FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N68W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N85W 25N90W 19N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM LOUISIANA TO TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THE NEBRASKA TO TEXAS PANHANDLE TROUGH. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THE COMPARATIVELY LOWEST VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 STATUTE MILES WITH FOG/MIST AND HAZE IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. ONE OF THE SITES...ICAO KEHC...IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF ONE STATUTE MILE AND FOG. THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS IS REPORTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW...MIDDLE...AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST NORTHWARD...TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND THE BORDER WITH LOUISIANA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND HAZE...AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 STATUTE MILES... ARE ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE MOBILE ALABAMA DOWNTOWN AIRPORT IS OBSERVING LOW CLOUDS AND 1 1/4 MILES VISIBILITY WITH FOG. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS... RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM 86W TO THE TAMPA AREA. FAIR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF GALE-FORCE WINDS 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 29N91W 22N98W COLD FRONT...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT FROM 24N TO 27N. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERNMOST COLOMBIA...TO 15N78W...BEYOND 21N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 73W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 73W...AND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 15N70W 15N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W... BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 15N70W 15N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST...CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N51W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N68W...BEYOND 32N66W. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER BEYOND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N29W 20N59W STATIONARY FRONT/20N59W 20N66W 22N75W SHEAR AXIS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 22N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N38W AND 21N51W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 21N51W TO 20N59W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N59W TO 20N66W AND 22N75W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W 24N40W 19N50W 17N60W... TO 17N80W TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N79W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MAURITANIA TO 23N18W TO 7N25W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND FROM THE LINE 10N20W 16N10W TO 30N. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N11W TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 30N23W 23N27W AND 16N34W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 36 HOUR FORECAST FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 15 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...WITH A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N32.5W...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING 25N55W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 28N35W 20N60W STATIONARY FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 61W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 52W. EXPECT ALSO A 12 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 77W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT