000 AXNT20 KNHC 300605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 7N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N16W TO 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1N44W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...TO 1S49W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N15W 3N27W 11N34W 11N43W 10N50W 10N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND THEN NORTHWARD BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STILL IS LOCATED FROM NEBRASKA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A TEXAS COLD FRONT THAT STILL IS ABOUT 100 TO 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W...TO 28N82W IN FLORIDA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO 27N87W AND 25N91W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE EAST OF 21N97W 26N92W BEYOND 31N88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM LOUISIANA TO TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THE NEBRASKA TO TEXAS PANHANDLE TROUGH. VISIBILITIES ARE RANGING FROM 2 TO 6 STATUTE MILES WITH FOG/MIST AND HAZE IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS IS REPORTING A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM 5 STATUTE MILES OF VISIBILITY AND HAZE IN EDINBURG...CLEAR SKIES AND 10 STATUTE MILES OF VISIBILITY IN HEBBRONVILLE AND ALICE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE IN BROWNSVILLE AND PORT ISABEL. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE IN VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA...AND ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. RAIN IS FALLING IN PALACIOS...BAY CITY...LAKE JACKSON...AND AT THE ELLINGTON FIELD IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS... VISIBILITY 5 STATUTE MILES WITH FOG/MIST IN BOOTHVILLE. VISIBILITIES OF 3 STATUTE MILES OR LESS AND FOG/MIST ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND FOG/MIST ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF 86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM 86W TO THE TAMPA AREA. FAIR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 18 HOUR FORECAST OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 29N91W 22N98W COLD FRONT...TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERNMOST COLOMBIA...TO 15N78W...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 73W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 73W...AND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 15N70W 15N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N83W IN COSTA RICA TO 8N88W... BEYOND 6N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 15N70W 15N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST...CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N39W TO 28N57W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W...TO 31N77W...BEYOND 28N82W IN FLORIDA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N29W 26N38W 21N51W 20N59W STATIONARY FRONT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 22N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N38W AND 21N51W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 21N51W TO 20N59W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 25N40W 20N50W 18N60W...TO 17N70W TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N79W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MAURITANIA TO 23N18W TO 8N26W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND FROM THE LINE 10N20W 16N10W TO 30N. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N15W TO 28N25W 22N33W 13N38W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 42 HOUR FORECAST FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 15 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...WITH A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N63W...AND A 31N35W 25N55W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 28N35W 20N59W STATIONARY FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 61W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT