000 AXNT20 KNHC 271755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH COMES OFF THE GHANA COAST NEAR 4N2W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N8W 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N17W 1N23W 2N30W 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE REGION WITHIN THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 14W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RETURN FLOW FROM A HIGH PRESSURE REGION OVER THE EAST CONUS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA PRODUCING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION OVER THIS REGION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SMALL ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A PRIOR CUT-OFF LOW BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. EXCEPT FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO WHERE THE WIND BLOWS AT 20 KT...THE REST OF THE GULF HAS LIGHTER RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC AND THE FAR NE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AS A DYING COLD FRONT BETWEEN TITUSVILLE AND CRYSTAL RIVER. THE DYING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NE GULF NEAR 28N82W AND EXTENDS TO 29N84W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N86W TO 15N88W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF THE HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SMALL ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A PRIOR CUT-OFF LOW BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC S OF 25N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CHANCES OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N67W AND EXTENDS TO 28N73W 28N78W TO TITUSVILLE FLORIDA. THIS FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27 N. THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N48W 26N56W 24N63W TO 23N68W. SIMILARLY TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE WEST ATLC...THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONT. OVER THE EAST ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 20 N ASSOCIATED TO A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N24W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE N OF 8N ALLOW FOR FAIR WEATHER OVER BOTH THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR