000
AXNT20 KNHC 261728
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH LIBERIA INTO THE EASTERN 
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 6N10W 3N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 3N19W AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 2N30W 1N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 2W-10W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 
27W-34W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A 1025 
MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND ANTI-CYCLONIC 
AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH MAINLY ZONAL 
WESTERLY FLOW COVERING THE GULF. DRY AIR ALOFT IS ALSO 
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN. A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIP SLIGHTLY SOUTH 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO 
THE NE GULF. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE 
ATLC MAY ALSO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS HELPING PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
NOTED NORTH OF HONDURAS AND ACROSS BELIZE S OF 18N W OF 84W 
LIKELY DUE TO A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NW HONDURAS. 
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 
19N65W TO 13N64W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15 KT SPREADS ACROSS THE 
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN AND 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOISTURE NEAR 
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ALONG WITH THE 
MOISTURE NEAR HONDURAS. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE WEST ATLC AROUND A 1025 MB 
HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N69W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS 
THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH ALONG 31N72W TO 28N76W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. TO 
THE EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W 
TO 24N67W WHERE IT BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS 
OF THE RIDGE AS IT DISSIPATES AND BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM 
NORTH OF THE AXIS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT 
ALOFT BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLC. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 42W 
SUPPORTING THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 30N27W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING 
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON