000 AXNT20 KNHC 161747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N16W TO 03N25W TO 03N37W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 21W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NE MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N70W. THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE GULF FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO 26N92W TO 21N94W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LIMITED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF WEST OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL WITH...SHIP...BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS REPORTING LIMITED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE NW GULF. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W BUT IS HOWEVER OVERSHADOWED BY STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR PREVAILS ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN WHICH IS KEEPING CONDITIONS AND SKIES FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 70W-80W AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN AS CENTRAL ATLC LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BRUSHES ACROSS THE THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN... INTRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS W OF 80W THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N70W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT IS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS...AT THE SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL W OF 55W WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND THE OCCASIONAL PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER. THESE SHOWERS STRETCH FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NW ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF HISPANIOLA TO THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N41W THAT SUPPORTS A NEARLY COLLOCATED 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N41W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED EAST OF THE LOW CENTERED FROM 32N37W TO 25N38W TO 19N47W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 75 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND REMAINS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 39W-44W. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 34N14W. HOWEVER... DIFFLUENCE DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-26N BETWEEN 20W-38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN