000
AXNT20 KNHC 141739
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N20W 
TO 3N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 26W-36W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 36W-41W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 26N94W TO N OF 
VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM 
OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
NEAR 32N72W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA. 15-25 KT N WINDS ARE W OF FRONT WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. 10-20 KT SE WINDS ARE 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH RETURN FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS 
ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA N OF 28N BETWEEN 
92W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
GULF. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS OVER THE NW GULF NW OF A LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 
TAMPICO MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO REMAIN 
STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N78W. THE 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE W ATLANTIC 
HIGH IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 80W. MORE 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN...TO 
INCLUDE HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. ZONAL FLOW 
IS OVER THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING ALL DEEP 
CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N72W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 999 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N46W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 25N E OF FRONT 
TO 35W...AND N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO 52W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS 
ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N32W TO 25N36W TO 15N47W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE FRONTS FROM 
25N-34N BETWEEN 36W-43W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
30N45W SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOW TO 
MOVE E TO 31N42W...AND FOR THERE TO BE NO CHANGE WITH THE 
STATIONARY FRONT.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA